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After peaking at ¥84 trillion in fiscal 1992, the construction market in Japan
fell consistently throughout fiscal 2003, dropping to ¥53,850 billion. As
a percentage of GDP, construction investment also fell from a high of 20% to around
10%. In particular, government outlays on construction fell by a substantial margin
of roughly 10% for the second consecutive year, significantly impacted by cutbacks
in public works spending. In contrast, construction orders began showing signs
of recovery, supported by rising capital spending, mainly in manufacturing.
Private housing investment also continued to fall from its most recent peak of
¥28 trillion in fiscal 1996, reaching ¥17,880 billion during the term, or just
two thirds of its peak level. New housing construction starts, which mainly consisted
of private demand, did in fact reach 1,173,649 units. This represented a rise
of 2.5% from the previous term — the first increase in four years — on the strength
of positive factors such as the front-loading of housing demand before the revision
of housing-related tax reduction, falling land prices and low interest rates.
Still, the figure fell 30% short of the level in fiscal 1996, when the housing
construction jumped ahead of the consumption tax hike. Market expansion remains
difficult given the aging population, combined with a declining birthrate and
a rise in the housing stock.
Although land prices in Japan fell for the thirteenth straight year, the rate
of decline (in publicly assessed land prices) shrank 0.2 percentage point, as
of January 2004 to 6.2% year-on-year. This was the first such improvement in six
years, and primarily reflected signs of a bottoming-out in commercial districts
in downtown Tokyo and residential areas in the 23-ward central part of Tokyo.
The dichotomy between the three megalopolises and other parts of the country became
more evident as residents returned to the center of Tokyo and other large cities,
where redevelopment projects offered greater convenience and attracted an influx
of investment capital. |
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